The BASES Rx Model has been developed and calibrated on a wide set of in-market data. BASES has tracked prescribing claims to in-market behavior to derive equations for overstatement adjustment. Claimed prescriptions per month are highly predictive of in-market Rx behavior. Market volume is forecasted in combining physicians response, marketing plans and BASES forecasting capabilities.

In order to continuously refine forecasting capabilities, BASES works together with its clients to validate our forecasts against actually in-market volume. BASES pharmaceutical modeling accuracy is ± 11% on average and ± 20% in 90% of cases. Validations include a range of therapeutic areas: Life-threatening to lifestyle, chronic to acute or episodic, symptomatic and asymptomatic.

Click here to download BASES publication at the 2006 PMSA Conference.